Spatio - Temporal Probabilistic Environmental Modelling
نویسنده
چکیده
Water/air/soil pollution, changes in structure and function of ecosystems, soils, hydrology,..., deforestation, global warming, and others are some of the main environmental problems that mankind is facing now. These processes can be modelled on different scales and with different complexity. Sometimes, generic/empirical approaches are used but unfortunately, these do not account for uncertainty, spatial and temporal variability. Environmental variables are considered as single, crisp values. But in reality, an environmental output can vary in time and space and is characterised by uncertainty and other forms of variability. Uncertainty represents ignorance or measurement error and can partly be reduced through further research. Uncertainty is usually represented by a confidence band or interval. Variability represents inherent heterogeneity or diversity, which is not reducible through further measurements. Typically, the two most important sources of variability for environmental variables are spatial and temporal variability. The contribution of spatial variability to the total environmental variability can be quite high. For example, atrazine concentrations in the Belgian surface water can vary over more than five orders of magnitude. The goal of this paper is to present a sequence of environmental modelling frameworks, where each time, a component of the variability is explicitly considered and refined. This work is partly based on existing work and partly on new developments. As an illustration, references to case studies of exposure modelling of individual chemicals were made.
منابع مشابه
Assessment of spatio-temporal variations of surface water quality and prioritization of pollution Sources (case Study: Talar Watershed, Mazandaran province)
متن کامل
Spatio-temporal agent based simulation of COVID-19 disease and investigating the effect of vaccination (case study: Urmia)
Proper management of epidemic diseases such as Covid-19 is very important because of its effects on the economy, culture and society of nations. By applying various control strategies such as closing schools, restricting night traffic and mass vaccination program, the spread of this disease has been somewhat controlled but not completely stopped. The main goal of this research is to provide a f...
متن کاملSpatio-temporal analysis of diurnal air temperature parameterization in Weather Stations over Iran
Diurnal air temperature modeling is a beneficial experimental and mathematical approach which can be used in many fields related to Geosciences. The modeling and spatio-temporal analysis of air Diurnal Temperature Cycle (DTC) was conducted using data obtained from 105 synoptic stations in Iran during the years 2013-2014 for the first time; the key variable for controlling the cosine term i...
متن کاملEnvironmental Modelling in Urban Areas with GIS
More accurate spatio-temporal predictions of urban environment are needed as a basis for assessing exposures as a part of environmental studies, and to inform urban protection policy and management. This paper is focused on modelling in the GIS to estimate air, water and soil pollution in urban areas. The basic environmental components are complemented by bio-monitoring, waste management and no...
متن کاملA New Class of Spatial Covariance Functions Generated by Higher-order Kernels
Covariance functions and variograms play a fundamental role in exploratory analysis and statistical modelling of spatial and spatio-temporal datasets. In this paper, we construct a new class of spatial covariance functions using the Fourier transform of some higher-order kernels. Moreover, we extend this class of spatial covariance functions to the spatio-temporal setting using the idea used in...
متن کاملEnvironmental Modelling Using Cloud Computing Tools: Case Studies and Examples
Cloud computing represents an emerging computing paradigm, which offers delivering a variety of computing services in a way that has not been experienced previously. In order to develop advanced simulations, environmental modelling must be adapted to this more powerful and efficient computing tool. Traditional model calculations are taken into the sphere of interconnected data and more accessib...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
دوره شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2002